AAAI-26 · 2026

One Map, Many Trials

Pettersson, Jerzak & Daoud

Satellite-driven poverty mapping is powerful — and biased. This work focuses on debiasing model predictions for causal inference when additional ground truth labels are scarce.

Remote sensing Debiasing Causal inference Poverty mapping
The idea

Debiasing predictions for causal inference

In high-stakes settings, prediction accuracy is not enough: the goal is to estimate effects and understand uncertainty. “One Map, Many Trials” frames a path to use satellite-based predictors while controlling for bias that can distort causal conclusions.

Where does bias enter?

Labels, sampling, measurement error, and model structure.

What can we fix without new labels?

Debiasing methods that use existing variation.

How do we evaluate?

Metrics aligned with inference, not just prediction.
Visual

Setup at a glance

One map, many trials

Related thread

Related to Earth observation causal inference workflows and work on effect heterogeneity.